Saturday, July 2, 2011

Ohio State football should be in for an exciting season (9-3, perhaps): Doug Lesmerises analysis

If Ohio State fans can separate the football from the NCAA issues, slightly adjust their thinking and have an open mind, this could be the most exciting season for the Buckeyes in years.

osumichigan.JPGView full sizeTwo first-year coaches going head-to-head adds a little spice to the 2011 Ohio State-Michigan game.

COLUMBUS, Ohio — Ohio State lost more than two regular-season games just twice in Jim Tressel's 10 seasons in Columbus -- during his first season in 2001 and in the transition year of 2004 that helped lead to the undefeated regular season of 2006.

In the final part of a three-part series of 12 questions about Ohio State football, the big picture is examined, and the guess is that it will include three losses.

1. What kind of season will this be?

A: If Ohio State fans can separate the football from the NCAA issues, slightly adjust their thinking and have an open mind, this could be the most exciting season for the Buckeyes in years.

Six teams from prognosticator Phil Steele's preseason top 40 -- No. 12 Nebraska, No. 23 Wisconsin, No. 24 Penn State, No. 28 Michigan State, No. 31 Miami (Fla.) and No. 39 Illinois -- are on the OSU schedule. That's six Saturdays when OSU fans should wake up a bit on edge, not knowing how the day will end. Exciting.

After years of people wondering if the Ohio State-Michigan rivalry was losing its luster, the Luke Fickell-Brady Hoke matchup of first-year head coaches will provide a jolt, and after Tressel's dominating 9-1 run, spice up Nov. 26. Exciting.

Following a record-tying six straight Big Ten titles, the Buckeyes should not be favorites to add title No. 7. Add a little underdog edge. Exciting.

Yet the expectations shouldn't change. When I asked this week if fans or players should happily settle for something like 9-3 in all this confusion, the Buckeyes glowered.

"Every season we have the goal to win the Big Ten championship and the national championship," senior center Mike Brewster said. "That's not going to change regardless of what happened or who's here or who's not here."

Too often in recent years, anything short of a national title left OSU fans with an idea of what could have been. On some level, that has been true in every season since 2005, a six-year stretch that saw Ohio State go 66-11, yet not win a national title.

After everything that has happened, I don't think Ohio State fans will feel that way after the 2011 season. And that may allow everyone to enjoy the journey more.

2. What teams can give Ohio State real trouble?

A: You can argue the Buckeyes' visit to Nebraska on Oct. 8, in terms of a combination of opposition talent and atmosphere, will be the toughest road challenge they have faced in more than a decade. Only the USC trip in 2008 and Wisconsin at its best might compare.

That would have been the case even if Jim Tressel and Terrelle Pryor were still around, because adding Nebraska to the Big Ten (which became official Thursday) is a game-changer. Too often in recent years, there weren't enough teams in the Big Ten able to challenge the Buckeyes, even if Ohio State was only good and not great.

With Wisconsin adding quarterback transfer Russell Wilson, Hoke reshaping Michigan, Michigan State's backfield and Penn State's experience, the rest of the league might finally be catching up, even if Ohio State doesn't wind up taking a huge step back.

3. Can Ohio State win the Big Ten?

A: Sure. At the moment, my range of potential records goes from 11-1 to 7-5, with the game at Nebraska the common loss. But Nebraska is in the Legends Division, and those losses won't hurt as much. The Leaders Division should come down to games against the three best division foes -- at Illinois on Oct. 15, home against Wisconsin on Oct. 29 with Ohio State coming off a bye week, and home with Penn State on Nov. 19. Those games are all in the second half of the season, at which time the new quarterback, whomever it is, and Fickell should be much more comfortable. I think Ohio State has a shot to go 6-2 in the Big Ten and still win a Leaders Division tiebreaker. Then the new Big Ten title game in Indianapolis on Dec. 3 would be a tossup, assuming sanctions don't keep the Buckeyes from playing in it.

4. So what will the Buckeyes' record be?

A: Try 9-3 for now. That would include losing one early game -- either at Miami or against Michigan State -- during the five-game suspensions of Mike Adams, DeVier Posey and Dan Herron. Then the Nebraska loss. And one other game to either Wisconsin, Penn State or, egads, Michigan.

Source: http://www.cleveland.com/osu/index.ssf/2011/07/ohio_state_should_be_in_for_an.html

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