IT’S easy to be cynical in football so when John Terry and Carlo Ancelotti insisted their team is back in the title race after winning at Bolton there were probably a thousand smirks across the country - and especially in Manchester.
On the face of it JT’s rallying cry was as fanciful as it was predictable given the myriad of problems that have beset Chelsea this season; ranging from injuries to ageing superstars, loss of confidence and interference from an ever-impatient owner.
His words largely fell on deaf ears at Old Trafford because, let’s face it, captains insisting their team will fight to the end are as numerous as managers who insist all they need to escape relegation is a ‘little bit of luck’ and ‘for decisions to go our way’.
The painful truth is that decisions don’t go the way of teams in trouble, lady luck rarely knocks on the door of the unlucky and teams of over-30s dragging their weary limbs through the second half of a difficult season, having lost confidence and belief in the first half, rarely finish on top.
Having said that, it turns out that John Terry’s assertion that Manchester United – seven points ahead of Chelsea with a game in hand before they play at Blackpool tonight – do not have an unassailable lead at the top of the Premier League is one that stands up to statistical scrutiny.
Although the gut feeling of most football fans is that Chelsea have a huge task if they want to retain their title, the history of the Premier League gives them a surprising amount of hope. During the competition’s 18-year history, eight teams who were behind in the title race on today’s date, January 25, went on to lift the trophy; and the eight-point swing required for Chelsea to be crowned champions is by no means unheard of.
In 1999-200, for instance, Leeds United were three points ahead of Alex Ferguson’s team at this time of the year but ended up 22 behind the eventual winners at the end of the season, an incredible swing of 25 points. To put that in perspective a similar swing this season would be enough to see Aston Villa, currently only two places above the relegation zone, finish ahead of the current leaders!
That won’t happen, of course, but who is to say Chelsea, veterans of so many title races, cannot overhaul a United side who still have to play home and away against Ancelotti’s men?
Chelsea will need to keep Terry, Frank Lampard and Didier Drogba fit to make it to make it happen, but the captain is understandably on a high.
“I don't think we have ever been out of the title race,” he said after the Bolton performance. “It has baffled me a little bit that people have said we are. Yes, we have not been in the best of form, but as we've seen teams drop points and we will never give up. When we play like that I don't think anyone can write us off. We've come back before, we never give up.”
You don’t have to go far to find statistical evidence for Terry’s statement, because only last season Chelsea trailed United on January 25 but went on to win the Double, while in 1996 Kevin Keegan’s Newcastle were famously 12 points ahead of United in early January but lost the title in the end.
Arsenal have done it, too, in Arsene Wenger’s first season in 1997-98 when they were 11 points behind United as late as March but produced 10 wins in a row to take the championship.
Before that, in the days when it was plain old Division 1, Liverpool were in the bottom half of the table after losing to Manchester City on St Stephen’s Day 1981, but Bob Paisley’s side won 21 and drew four of their remaining 25 matches to win their 13th league title ahead of Bobby Robson’s Ipswich.
Of course it would be asking a lot for Kenny Dalglish’s current Liverpool side to produce a similar run; but Chelsea with all their experience, all their money, talent and medals? Why not? Stranger things have happened in football – just ask fans at Elland Road.
Source: http://feeds.examiner.ie/~r/iesportsblog/~3/__NAk6u3AE8/post.aspx
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